The Brief, No. 38

16 December 2022

The G20 was suppose to replace the G7.  However, G7 continues to exist, operates independently, meets annually and pushes its own agenda outside and within the G20. 

The G20 is the biggest economic bloc in the world and arguably the most influential with institutions such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU). 

South Africa is the only country from Africa that holds a permanent membership in the G20.  The country has therefore all along acted as a “representee of the entire African continent” within the G20.  

The proposal by the US to grant the AU permanent membership in the G20 is critical for the following reasons:

• It will certainly strip off South Africa the prestige of being the “representee” of the continent within G20.

• AU’s economic policies are likely to become more susceptible to the influences of the US and indeed the EU henceforth.

• The G20 is certainly becoming a global super economic bloc; and being the largest global economic platform, is therefore likely to Influence global economic consensus.

• Russia and China have been increasingly investing in Africa’s infrastructure and making meaningful economic contributions. The US and the EU, using the influence of an expanded G20, is likely to bulldoze future economic investment and infrastructural development plans of both China and Russia in the continent.

• BRICS’s expansionist project and plans in Africa are likely to be stopped in their tracks if this proposal comes to fruitition.  

Afrasid available for commentary and analysis

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No. 37

08 December 2022

Important summits will take place in Riyadh between the President of China Xi Jinping, Saudi Arabia and leaders of the Arab World. 

According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), “the visit will include a “Saudi-Chinese summit,” a China-Arab and a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit”. 

• Saudi Arabia is clearly trying to demonstrate its influence in the region, that it has the power to “summon in short notice” all Arab leaders to a meeting.

• Saudi Arabia is sending a message to the US that it does not need it anymore, instead it will be improving relations with China. China has surpassed US in terms of oil exports from Saudi Arabia. China is today Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, with the value of the kingdom’s exports to China have exceeded $50 billion last year, constituting more than 18% of Saudi Arabia’s total exports in 2021.  Saudi-US relations are at an all-time low following criticism by President Biden of Saudi’s human rights record and acrimony as a result of reduction of oil production by OPEC days before mid-term elections.

Notably as well is the timing of the summits. Indeed Saudi - China Summit has been long in planning.  However, Arab-China Summit and the GCC -China Summit were after thought meant to steal the limelight from Qatar who is currently hosting the FIFA World Cup. 

Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid) is available for commentary and analysis.

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No. 36

 01 December 2022

According to an independent panel that probed the Phala Phala matter, the President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, "may have committed serious violations and breached anti-corruption laws”. The probe was instituted by the parliment of South Africa following a robbery at the president's farm in February 2020.

A few things could happen; parliamentary may institute processes that may lead to his impeachment.  The president may voluntarily decide to step aside as a political head of the African National Congress (ANC).  Alternatively the President may stick it out, he may resist all processes including calls for his resignation. 

In the meantime the country remains on tenterhooks as it waits what “may”or not  happen to the president.  

Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid) is available for comment and analysis

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No. 35

 21 November 2022

President Cyril Ramaphosa will be in the United Kingdom (UK) on a state visit from 22 to 23 November 2022.  This visit is significant for South Africa and Ramaphosa personally, he is the first head of state to be hosted by King Charles III. 

The visit is seen as a possible reset of relationship between the two nations after COVID-19.  The South African government and citizens alike felt personally bruised by the UK’s red listing of South Africa for a second time in November 2021, in response to the Omicron variant – decimating the critical tourism sector for a second year in a row.  

Ramaphosa will meet UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, to discuss bilateral on economic development.  The UK remains one of South Africa’s main trading partners.  Ramaphosa will push for strengthening of economic ties and investments in South Africa as the country continues to struggle in creating jobs.

Moreover, the discussions will also include the Just Energy Transition.  The UK is the largest state contributor to the 8.5$ billion pledged by Western nations to assist South Africa to transition from coal to clean energy sources.

Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No. 34

22 September 2022

The death of Mahsa Amini has triggered widespread protests in Iran.  Yesterday, many young women took off their scarves and burn them as a sign of protest.

Amini died in custody after she was arrested for not complying with the regime’s strict hijab rules in Tehran on September 13.  The arrest was carried out by Gasht-e Ershad" (Guidance Patrols) commonly known as Morality Police. 

The police insist that she died of a heart attack, but witnesses accuse the police of beating her and physically assaulting her soon after arrest.  Her family has also refuted claims by the police that she died of a heart attack placing the blame of her death squarely on police.

Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, authorities in Iran imposed a mandatory dress code requiring all women to wear a headscarf and loose-fitting clothing that disguises their figures in public.

The government of Iran has called for an inquiry in this regard.  The protests are likely to add further complications as Iran continues to renegotiate Joint Comprehensive Program of Action (JCPOA) with P5+1 nations.

Afrasid is available for commentary and analysis

www.afrasid.org